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Thursday’s NBA playoff action features one game from each conference with a similar scenario. Both the Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks face elimination in Game 6 on their home floor, battling the top-seeded team in their respective conferences.

Elimination games bring out the best in some teams and prove too much for other clubs to handle. Some of the NBA’s brightest stars, like Luka Doncic and Joel Embiiid, will test their mettle Thursday night.

Both games offer some interesting storylines for bettors as well, with a plethora of props available for all four teams.

These four wagers stand out as my best bets in these pivotal Game 6 matchups:

James Harden under 2.5 three-pointers made 

There are few players in the NBA, particularly among the teams remaining in the playoffs, with as much game-to-game variance as James Harden. The inconsistency in Harden’s game over the last few months has the ability to completely squash any over-under prop or fall well short, depending on his energy level and effectiveness on any given night.

His decision of when and why to shoot from beyond the arc has been particularly perplexing. Harden has looked less inclined to shoot off the catch, when he’s often wide open, instead favoring contested threes taken via his patented step back move.

In general, however, he’s shooting fewer threes now than at previous points in his career. In the 2019 playoffs, Harden hoisted 12.5 deep balls per game. This year, that number is just 6.3 per game.

Harden has surpassed 2.5 made threes in just two of the Sixers 11 playoff games this spring, and two of his last 17 games played. In total, he’s made more than 2.5 threes in just nine of his 32 games with Philadelphia.

The numbers say this prop is unlikely to hit. If he does go well over this mark, Philadelphia has to like its chances to force a Game 7.

Tyrese Maxey over 26.5 points + assists + rebounds 

Elsewhere on the Philadelphia roster, young Tyrese Maxey has seen his production fluctuate from game to game as well. Maxey though, seems to have a pattern to his ups and downs lately. Since the playoffs started, he has been a different player at home in front of the Wells Fargo Center crowd.

In the regular season, he averaged 17.7 points at home and 17.3 points on the road, with 4.5 assists at home and 4.0 away from Philly. But since the playoffs started, ignoring a small sample size, his numbers have been starkly different. At home in the postseason, Maxey is averaging 22.4 points per game, compared to 19.4 on the road, propped up by scoring 10 of his 34 points in Game 2 against Miami in a fourth quarter of a mostly decided ball game.

At home in the playoffs, Maxey has hit this 26.5 number for points, assists and rebounds in three out of five chances, with one of the misses sitting at just 25. With Joel Embiid still hobbled by his laundry list of injuries, expect to see Maxey come out shooting early and often, clearing this total before the night is done.

Mavericks over 105.5 total points

Dallas has built around Luka Doncic in a very modern way, surrounding the Slovenian star with shooters and secondary creators that rely on him to put the ball in position for them to score. On certain nights, the opposing team constantly feels a step slow when Doncic’s teammates hit open look after open look. On others, Doncic feels on an island, unable to find the answers.

The latter was certainly the case in Game 5, when the Mavericks managed just 80 points for the game. Dallas’ shooters went ice cold, hitting just eight of 32 from deep.

Prior to that game, however, the Mavs were averaging 107 points per game in the playoffs, some of which game with Doncic sidelined due to injury. In their final eight regular season games, Dallas posted more than 121 points per night.

The Mavericks will be poised to bounce back from Tuesday’s cold night. The last time they shot that poorly, Game 1 against Utah in which Dallas made only nine of 32 from long range, the Mavericks followed it up with 22 made threes in Game Two.

Expect another outburst, with a home crowd urging on a Dallas team with its back against the wall.

Dallas Mavericks (+2) vs Phoenix Suns 

Shooting regression is a big reason why I expect Dallas to bounce back and force a Game 7 against the top-seeded Suns. The Mavericks starting five managed to make just four of their 17 attempts from beyond the arc in Game 6.

Back in Dallas, that’s not likely to continue.

In the last two seasons, the Mavericks were bounced from the playoffs by the Los Angeles Clippers. In the two clinching games, Doncic averaged 42 points, eight rebounds, and 11.5 assists, yet Dallas lost both games.

Doncic has evolved his game to adapt to playoff defenses, reaching this round of the playoffs for the first time. Jalen Brunson is the best secondary scoring option Doncic has had in his time as a Maverick. This team is poised to extend its season into the weekend, so getting two points on the spread is a bonus.