Joe Root’s tenure as England captain kicks off against a depleted South Africa at Lord’s on Thursday, with the promise of "natural, instinctive" cricket.

Root’s amiable approach legitimises that statement, though the squad he has helped select for his first match in charge does not particularly match it.

The inclusion of Liam Dawson, who looks set to make the final XI, is the strangest of two or three debatable calls.

The Hampshire all-rounder has not exhibited Test class with either bat or ball at county level, yet is considered a suitable alternative to fellow spinner Adil Rashid and a plethora of better frontline batsmen.

Gary Ballance’s recall, meanwhile, proves Root’s influence over selection, though his inclusion is fully justified by a first-class average of 93 in 2017.

But despite an underwhelming squad, a record of just one win in six Tests at Lord’s, and failure to beat South Africa in a home series since 1998, England are favourites to go 1-0 up this week.

Faf du Plessis, AB de Villiers and Dale Steyn are all missing for the tourists, who have struggled – at times to the point of chaos – through the first half of their summer on these shores.

Taking all of that into account, here are our best bets for the first Test:

Top England 1^st innings batsman: Jonny Bairstow –

Bairstow has established himself as one of England’s key batsmen, yet is available at a significantly longer price in this market than peers Joe Root and Alastair Cook.

The Yorkshireman registered an unbeaten century on this ground against Sri Lanka last summer, and should avoid the best of South Africa’s feared new-ball attack by coming in at No.5.

Temba Bavuma 1^st innings: Under 26.5 runs –

Bavuma built a reputation as one of the world’s best young batsmen against England 18 months ago, but has failed to fit the bill since.

Just three scores of 27 or more in his last 12 innings hardly convince that he is likely to score heavily here. 

Gary Ballance 1^st innings: Over 26.5 runs –

Ballance’s weakness may be South Africa’s strength – fierce pace bowling – but he has been seeing it like a football this season, and should enjoy playing under Yorkshire team-mate Root.

The Zimbabwean-born left-hander has made two of his four Test centuries at Lord’s, and managed 69* in Yorkshire’s total of 208 there last month.

Top South Africa 1^st innings bowler: Kagiso Rabada –

Rabada tore through England in the recent ODI at Lord’s, taking four wickets to leave the hosts 20-6 inside the first half hour.

The 22-year-old has had previous Test match success against England, too, taking a record-breaking 13 wickets when the two sides last met in January 2016. 

England to win –

For all the mystery surrounding England’s team selection, this is some chance to take a series lead.

South Africa are distinctly inexperienced, particularly with the bat, while the hosts should be buoyant under fresh leadership.