MICHAEL VAN GERWEN v MICHAEL SMITH

Van Gerwen to win and over 10.5 sets

Rather than taking a punt on a correct score, this looks about the best value around when backing Van Gerwen to win.

Smith lost 11-4 to the Dutchman in the Premier League final earlier this year, but should find set play far more forgiving.

His power scoring ought to keep him in the hunt for plenty of legs and, having hit more than half of his 45 darts at double against Nathan Aspinall, he’s in good enough form to take the chances that do come his way.

It’s natural to expect MVG’s performance to dip slightly from his staggering semi-final, so four or more sets shouldn’t be beyond his opponent.

Smith to hit the most 180s (-1.5 handicap)

One area where Smith certainly ought to have the upper hand is the 180s.

He hit 17 against Aspinall, taking his total for the tournament to 51 - a whopping 19 more than Van Gerwen.

MVG couldn’t even shake off a misfiring Anderson in his previous match when it came to maximums, so he’s likely to be left trailing in Smith’s wake here.

Smith to hit over 3.5 100+ checkouts

Smith’s finishing in his semi-final was superb, taking out five finishes of 100 or more.

He hit three in his match before that, so is easily capable of four more in a best-of-15 format.

Even Anderson managed three against MVG despite only winning a single set and, if the Dutchman is in anything like the same mood, then Smith will know those three-dart finishes could make all the difference.

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