Adam Drury provides his football tips from Wednesday's action in the Premier League and Serie A.

Newcastle to win or draw v Aston Villa & under 3.5 goals (18:00)

This has been a popular market since the resumption of the Premier League, with all but one of the matches so far returning under 3.5 goals.

After Newcastle’s solid performance on Sunday, it is worth backing them to emerge from a low-scorer with at least a point.

Steve Bruce’s side held Sheffield United at arm’s length throughout the game, while Aston Villa have been toothless against both the Blades and Chelsea in the last week.

Wolves to beat Bournemouth & under 4.5 goals (18:00)

This is a horrible fixture for Bournemouth after their abject 2-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace on Saturday.

Wolves looked as solid as ever in beating West Ham 2-0 at the weekend.

Nuno Santo’s side have won four of their last five league games against teams outside the top six, with home wins against all of the other members of the bottom five – Watford, Aston Villa, West Ham and Norwich – returning under 4.5 goals.

Bruno Fernandes to score from outside the box v Sheffield United (18:00)

Since signing for Manchester United in January, no Premier League player has taken more shots per game than Bruno Fernandes.

Of his four efforts per game, an average of 2.8 are from outside the penalty area. He scored with one of those attempts against Everton in February, and had three further efforts from outside the box against Tottenham on Friday.

Only Burnley and Bournemouth allow a greater proportion of their shots from outside the box than Sheffield United, which could usually be considered a good thing, but is dangerous with Fernandes around.

Sadio Mane to score and Liverpool to beat Crystal Palace (20:15)

Mane has a remarkable record against Crystal Palace, scoring in all of his last five appearances against them.

The Senegal international has netted in four of Liverpool’s last five home league games, all of which Liverpool have won.

Crystal Palace have been solid on the road this season, but can’t be expected to repel a Liverpool team on the verge of the title.

Over 3.5 goals in Atalanta v Lazio (20:45)

Atalanta beat Sassuolo 3-1 in an incredibly open game that finished 3.17-2.51 in terms of expected goals at the weekend.

This bet has landed in their last four matches, with those games finishing 4-1, 2-7, 3-4 and 4-1.

Lazio scored at least twice in their last three games before the season was paused, while the reverse fixture between these two finished 3-3 in October.

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