The money list: The best bets for the Alfred Dunhill Links

03 Oct

Jack Green

Shane Lowry's form and previous success at links courses makes him our top pick for this weekend's European Tour pro-am.

Event guide

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a unique event on the European Tour in that it is played on three courses: Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews.

All players play the three courses once before a 54-hole cut, with those remaining taking on St Andrews for a second time on Sunday.

As this is a pro-am event, the courses are made easier for the celebrities that take part, so low scores are to be expected.

When picking a potential winner, it’s important to look at previous results on links courses, meaning players who have had success at the Open Championship, Irish Open, Scottish Open and Paul Lawrie Matchplay should be considered contenders.

A high greens in regulation percentage is also key, with five of the last seven winners of this event ranked inside the top 10 for GIR.

Back to win

Shane Lowry –

Rory McIlroy is a formidable favourite this weekend, but the Northern Irishman’s price of 11/2 is just too short in an event that could easily be decided by the weather.

Instead, Lowry – who’s finished seventh at the British Masters last weekend – is the player to back at the top of the market.

The 30-year-old has finished in the top 20 in each of the last four years at this event, and came third in 2013.

He’s an excellent links player, having won the Irish Open as an amateur in 2009 and finished inside the top 10 at the Open Championship and the top five at the Scottish Open in the past three years.

With two top-sevens in his last three starts, the Irishman has to be backed in an event that suits him perfectly.

Each-way shouts

George Coetzee –

Coetzee placed 15th at Close House last weekend – his third consecutive top-15 finish.

The South African should really have finished higher up the leaderboard, having opened with a round of 63, but posted a 70 on Sunday to drop out of contention.

He should bounce back from that disappointment with a strong showing in Scotland, at an event at which he finished fifth in 2012.

Coetzee has had some success at links courses previously, including a T3 at the 2011 Scottish Open and a T5 at the wind-affected Dubai Desert Classic a year later, and is good value to pick up his first European Tour win since May 2015.

Richard Sterne –

Sterne, another South African, finished second at this event last year and looks capable of going one better.

The 36-year-old placed ninth and 20th in his two starts prior to his T31 at last weekend’s British Masters and played really well in three of the four days at Close House, with a 74 on Saturday ruining his chances.

Sterne’s now finished inside the top 20 in four of his last seven starts – a run that started with a T19 at the Scottish Open at Dundonald.

A six-time winner on the PGA Tour, Sterne has the pedigree to win these events and is in the form to do so once again.

Outside bet

Jamie Donaldson –

Outsiders have a greater chance of winning the Alfred Dunhill Links than most European Tour events, as the windy conditions – along with the fact that each course is played just once before the cut – can lead to some surprising results.

If any player is going to win at a big price, Donaldson looks the best bet.

The Welshman has struggled for form this season, but did make the cut at Close House last weekend and is a fine links player.

He won the Irish Open at Royal Portrush in 2012 and has had some decent results at this event in the past, with top-10s in 2008 and 2011.