Back to win: Brooks Koepka

No need to overthink this.

Koepka's won three of the last four majors on American soil, with the only exception a runner-up finish behind Tiger Woods at this year's Masters.

The American scorched the field to win the 2017 US Open by four shots, and defended his title last year by seeing off Tommy Fleetwood by a stroke.

Koepka is the ultimate big-game player, with four of his six career wins coming in majors, and, unlike Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy this year, he's shown that he can close when he's in contention.

Each-way shout: Phil Mickelson

This is Mickelson's best chance to complete the career grand slam by winning the only major that has eluded him.

The 48-year-old has won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am six times, including in February this year.

Mickelson isn't in great form, having missed the cut last time out at the Memorial Tournament, but will have been aiming at this week for a while and is worth backing to turn it on for the biggest event of his season.

He's been critical of the USGA over the last few years for the way they set up the courses at this tournament, but it sounds like Pebble Beach is in fantastic condition this week, which bodes well for Lefty's chances.

Outside shot: Gary Woodland

The fairways are tight at Pebble Beach and the rough is penal, so it would seem sensible to favour accurate drivers this week.

In truth, though, driving accuracy hasn't been particularly important at this venue, and it's actually worth backing the big hitters.

Woodland ranks 11th in driving distance and shots gained off the tee on the PGA Tour this season, and that has translated into some good results, including a T8 at the PGA Championship.

He finished fifth at Pebble Beach in 2017, so looks a solid outside bet at a big price.

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