Visit Betway's horse racing betting page.

GOODWOOD SELECTIONS

If the forecast is anything like correct, then the key to Day 2 of Goodwood will be finding horses that relish soft ground. The difficulty is everyone else is likely to be doing the same thing, so the stand out candidates often attract a welter of support. Taking prices as early as possible is a sound strategy in such cases, even if you can expect significant Rule 4 adjustments for the large number of non-runners.

The feature race is the Qatar Sussex Stakes, where one of the stars of the season, Paddington, will be looking to extend his winning sequence. He has a heavy ground victory to his name and the proven ability to stay further, so conditions are not be too much of a concern. Inspiral would be more of a question, she has never been tried on ground worse than good to soft and Frankel as a sire has an Actual/Expected of 0.92 (Par 1.00) on softer extremes. Her mum Starscope, put up her best career effort on soft ground but whether she will be risked has to be questionable.

At the prices, FACTEUR CHEVAL (15:35)  is the most interesting. He has lots of soft ground form and when conditions become testing the extra physical development of older horses can often be more of an asset in counter balancing weight for age. He was keen last time so hopefully will be ridden to pick up the pieces and whilst he clearly has a bit to find in terms of form, he is more likely to be able to reproduce it on conditions then some of his rivals.

Facteur Cheval is by Ribchester who from a small sample has an A/E of 1.21 of soft and heavy and it is well worth keeping a list of sires whose progeny excel when things get squelchy. Top of my list has always been Fast Company, who is represented by FAST RESPONSE  in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes (14:25). Her ability to handle the ground is there for all to see, with four victories on soft or heavy, and makes her a solid selection.

Where sires are even more useful is in estimating the chances of a horse handling cut when it is unproven, so never run on it, as opposed to clearly unsuited, where it has tried it and run badly. Gleneagles never really tried it on the track but his progeny are certainly at home on it (A/E 1.26) and that makes CLAN CHIEFTAIN  (13:50) of interest. His full brother Highland Chief won twice on soft ground and whilst a recent wind operation is a worry, it may help explain a below run last time out. The stable of Ralph Beckett are in good form and Hector Crouch has impressed me with some sound tactical rides in recent weeks.} 

JOCKEYS FOR COURSES

  • Goodwood – William Buick (A/E = 1.27, with 100 track victories. Likely to be appearing all week)
  • Leicester – Jack Mitchell (A/E = 1.47, his most successful track by that metric outside of a small number of Flat rides at Wetherby)
  • Galway- Gavin Ryan – (A/E = 1.81, with just the one ride, Hallowed Star in the 6.10, but one with form at the track under different codes.)

STABLE TRACKER HORSE

HAKUNA BABE   (20:02 Sandown) returns to the track where she was added to the list two starts back. Her ability to handle the ground would be a concern, but she definitely has the ability to win off this mark having gone for home a little soon at Leicester last time (traded 1.48 in running).

FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD

LOOK BACK SMILING   (18:02 Leicester) is another of Fast Company with proven ability to handle soft ground and can score for the in-form Gemma Tutty yard. There looks to be a bit of pace in the race via Gone and Roach Power and, if ridden quietly by Laura Coughlan, Look Back Smiling can pick them off on the stiff climb to the line.

SELECTIONS

CLAN CHIEFTAIN   (13:50 Goodwood)

FAST RESPONSE   (14:25 Goodwood)

FACTEUR CHEVAL   (15:35 Goodwood)

LOOK BACK SMILING  (18:02 Leicester)

HAKUNA BABE  (20:02 Sandown)

Take the early prices on all bar Hakuna Babe.