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It has been a quiet couple of weeks for the stable with just the three runners.

TWO RELEASED, ONE RETAINED

We’ll start with Matnookh, who was unplaced at 8/1 at Newmarket on 14 July and is quickly removed. The writing was on the wall with first-time cheekpieces applied and stable jockey Oisin Orr elsewhere, meaning what had looked like promise was actually him saving a bit for himself.

The second, Davideo was a 4-1 winner at Newmarket on 15 July, showing how the breakneck speed at Ascot had meant his run there was a complete forgive. The price benefitted from another example of recency bias, where a horse’s last run – good or bad – is given too much significance compared to their overall profile.

Davideo was as short as 7-1 for the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, and it is often worth identifying horses whose last runs were strikeouts – whether that’s from being too close to a strong pace, too far back in a steadily run race, caught very wide, or where the ground went against them. He is not retained as the recency bias will, if anything, now operate the other way around.

Finally, Hakuna Babe finished fourth at Leicester on 20 July. She got into a great position tactically but went for home a bit soon and, having looked the winner, couldn’t last home. She has been left unchanged by the handicapper and will be left on for her next run.

FOUR NEW ADDITIONS

Whenever the ground changes, additions will likely be thin on the ground. Softer conditions than usual, especially last Friday, means horses who shape well may not get the ground again for at least a month or two, so are less likely to pay dividends close to hand.

There are, however, four new additions to the stable:

FILM STAR – Just lost out in what looked an above average race for the grade at Brighton on 11 July. She has done well since moving into handicaps and there could be more to come when she steps up to a mile.

FORGET YOU NOT – Fared best of those that set an overly strong pace in the last at Newton Abbot on 23 July. It would be no surprise if he didn’t appear again until a race at Exeter in October that he has won previously.

OUTGUN – Got no run in a big-field handicap at Newbury on 21 July having been ridden out the back. He is settling better when ridden quietly and would have been second with a clear passage.

TOUGH ENOUGH – Did as well as any from the back in a solid-looking 6f handicap at Newmarket on 13 July. He can find easier opportunities and may well stay 7f. An unchanged mark of 87 looks reasonable.

You can see the latest stable as it stands in full here.