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With a top-quality week of racing just around the corner at York next week – I’ll be writing blogs every day from the Knavesmire – Saturday’s action has a nice, varied feel to it, with the domestic Group races provided by the Geoffrey Freer and Hungerford Stakes at Newbury complemented by a terrific sprint handicap in the Great St. Wilfrid at Ripon.

NEWBURY

Once again, there is the prospect of significant rainfall on Friday to complicate matters and this is especially true in the Hungerford Stakes (Newbury, 15:35), where many of the principals would not want cut in the ground. The pick on this season’s form is Chindit but he was taken out on soft ground at Goodwood and ran poorly in this race last year behind Jumby, another who has proved best on a fast surface, so it looks too tricky a race to get involved in.

One horse who will love the rain is ARREST  (Newbury, 13:50) who sluiced through the mud to win at Chester on his seasonal return. He has come up short in the Derby and Royal Ascot but both races were on fast ground, and he could be a different proposition if the forecasted rain arrives. He still has the potential to progress higher and is preferred to Kemari, who had the run of the race when winning a Listed contest at Newmarket last time and is far more exposed.

NEWMARKET

Away from Newbury, I will be relying on horses who have ‘been there and done it’ for the remaining selections.

Newmarket seems the most likely track to avoid the rain on Friday and is where STRIKE  will be bidding to repeat his success of two years ago in the Greys race (Newmarket, 14:05). He showed a return to form at the track last time in a race which has worked out surprisingly well, with the fifth- and seventh-placed horses both winning next time out. Strike does prefer fast ground and, while this is deeper than the five-runner renewal he won two years ago, as a hold-up horse the bigger field should ensure a decent pace for him to run at.

OUTGUN  , one of our stable tracker horses, also runs on Saturday (Newmarket, 16:20). He got no luck in the run at Newbury last time, but for which he almost certainly would have finished second. He needs holding up as he can be keen, so hopefully Bailar Contigo will set a decent pace and Outgun will have too much ammunition for his rivals in the closing stages.

RIPON

Old friend SUMMERGHAND    was denied a run in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood after getting upset in the stalls but can hopefully gain compensation and a change of fortune in a race he has run well in before. He was first home in his small group of four last year but couldn’t catch two on the stands side, an effort that came off a 1lb higher mark. He also finished runner up in 2019 off an even higher mark and can make it third time lucky in the Great St Wilfrid (Ripon, 15:15).

One place ahead of Summerghand last year was MARK’S CHOICE  , who this year has only made the consolation race (Ripon, 14:40). He has won seven times at Ripon and can put a below-par run at Doncaster behind him back at his beloved track. A win would mean he has won here on each of the last five seasons and his stable remain in flying form.

JOCKEYS FOR COURSES

Saffie Osborne gave us another double last week at 27-1, and here is this week’s list of jockeys riding at courses where they have particularly good records:

  • Newbury – Hayley Turner (actual/expected ratio of 1.76 from a sample of over 200 rides, with 23 winners against an expected tally of 13 based on their prices)
  • Newmarket July Course – David Probert (A/E of 1.28 from a decent-sized sample)
  • Perth – Sean Bowen (A/E of 1.26, manages to outperform the market despite riding quite a few short-priced horses)
  • Curragh – Nathan Cross (A/E of 1.75 from a sample of over 200 rides, most of which have gone off at big prices, with eight winners at 10-1 or above)

SATURDAY SELECTIONS:

ARREST   (Newbury, 13:50)

STRIKE   (Newmarket, 14:05)

MARK’S CHOICE  (Ripon, 14:40)

SUMMERGHAND  (Ripon, 15:15)

OUTGUN  (Newmarket, 16:20)