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So-called ‘Super Saturday’ – with major meetings at Newmarket, York and Ascot – increasingly reminds me of one of those all-you-can-eat buffets. You sit down drooling, surrounded by goodies, only to find halfway through that you’re incapable of facing another mouthful and wish you could bring a doggy bag to take stuff home for another day.
ITV have tried to space out their coverage to increase the amount of time to focus on the plethora of good races but, with next weekend being one of the weakest in the Flat calendar, it does seem strange that one of these feature meetings is not pushed back seven days to be the clear centrepiece when the sport is looking to provide a more joined up-approach.
The lesson for this Saturday is therefore to pick your battles, especially as rain is forecast right across the country – which may well result in significant market upheavals and absentees, depending on the amount that is dropped from the heavens.
JULY CUP
The feature race is the July Cup (Newmarket, 16:45), which brings together two Royal Ascot winners in Shaquille and Khaadem. Shaquille’s win in the Commonwealth Cup against other three-year-olds was one of the most remarkable of the meeting given the amount of ground that he gave away at the start. It has always puzzled me down the years how this isn’t always the huge negative it logically appears to be. Think of Paisley Park’s win, for example, and how often even those horses that don’t win aren’t beaten as far as the ground they appear to have lost. The key seems to be to give them time to recover, and perhaps the isolation helps them to relax and take full advantage of any overly strong pace, though that didn’t seem to be a factor in the Commonwealth. The other conclusion to be drawn is that the horses Shaquille beat may not be a vintage generation, and that could also be levelled at the older brigade after the seemingly well-exposed Khaadem caused a big shock in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes a few days later.
It makes me think that going a little wider is the way to go, especially if the ground turns soft, and a speculative each-way bet on VADREAM 28/1 appeals. The ground is key to this horse, so the more rain the better, and his Ascot run in the King’s Stand was possibly a shade better than it appeared given she led home a smaller group of three who raced well away from the action. Her trainer Charlie Fellowes is also due to be a guest on The Opening Show and may well talk up her chances, so taking an early price if the forecast looks poor looks a reasonable strategy. She clearly has a bit to find, but there is no guarantee that Shaquille won’t repeat his stall misdemeanours and the race has a nice each way shape as long as at least eight take their chance.
OTHER SATURDAY SELECTIONS
With so many competitive races, HAMISH 4/6 (York, 15:45) stands out as a horse to build any multiples around. The rain will just add to his class advantage and he is a thoroughly admirable individual who will clearly take a lot of beating.
ZARZYNI 12/1 (Ascot, 13:45) has dropped to a mark well below the one he raced off when finishing third in this race twelve months ago. Even allowing for it being a stronger renewal, a 10lb lower mark catches the eye and he was one of several who looked unlucky not to finish closer in the Dash at Epsom where he met traffic problems.
REGIONAL 3/1 (York, 14:35) has the right run style for York where it always seems quite tricky to come from off the pace in sprints. He should get a nice spot close to Silky Wilkie and looks an improved horse since focusing on 5f races.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
The recent good run continued with a 75-1 Newmarket double for Jim Crowley on Thursday.
Here is Saturday’s list of jockeys heading off with a spring in their step to courses where they have a good record:
- Hamilton – Shane Gray
- Newmarket – Marco Ghiani
- York – Connor Beasley
STABLE TRACKER
One runner today in the shape of DAVIDEO SP (Newmarket, 17:10) who was responsible for setting the furious pace in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. It is worth remembering he was sent off as short as 7-1 that day and that run is a complete strike-out, so recency bias could see him go off over the odds here.
FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD
Expect FLAMMABLE SP (Salisbury, 19:45) to show improved form moving into handicap company for the first time. She has a decent pedigree and Qatar Racing have very few competing off a mark this low while staying in their ownership.
SATURDAY SELECTIONS:
ZARZYNI 12/1 (Ascot, 13:45)
REGIONAL 3/1 (York, 14:35)
HAMISH 4/6 (York, 15:45)
VADREAM 28/1 (Newmarket, 16:45)
DAVIDEO SP (Newmarket, 17:10)
FLAMMABLE SP (Salisbury, 19:45)