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There’s a small turnout for the Eclipse (15:40, Sandown), the feature race of the weekend, but it does at least boast a genuine clash of the generations.

Since 1999, honours have been spread very evenly with 10 successful three-year-olds against an expected value of 10.04 – so an almost perfect par number. This means by definition it will be the same for the older horses, with 15 wins compared to an expected figure of 15.09.

Breaking down the age of the older horses is therefore potentially of more use.

Four-year-olds have won seven renewals but, based on the prices they have gone off, an actual/expected ratio of 0.88 suggests they should have fared rather better. The five-year-olds have eight winners from far fewer representatives with a healthy A/E of 1.41. No horse older than six (and there are none this year) has won during that period.

The other issue with a small field is the potential for it to become very tactical. Both Dubai Honour and Emily Upjohn are confirmed hold-up horses, so PADDINGTON is highly likely to be better placed in the run, either leading or sitting just off West Wind Blows.

A dominant winner at Royal Ascot, he has been strong at the finish in both his last two races at a mile and these look to be the key attributes required. Emily Upjohn has been declared without the hood she has worn on her last two starts and there is a real danger she may be keen in the early stages. She beat Westover by showing a sharp turn of foot but whether that will be as easy against a miler with the potential advantage of track position must be open to doubt.

OTHER SATURDAY SELECTIONS

Our stable tracker is getting into full swing with Gavi Di Gavi the first runner on Friday at Sandown and a few others on the list are worth an interest this weekend.

First up is BRIDESTONES who runs in the Listed Fillies’ Distaff (15:00, Sandown). Confidence would be higher if this was a handicap as, judging by the way she shaped in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot, where she met a lot of trouble, a mark of 93 looked to underestimate her ability. Clearly the lure of black type is the preference for connections and makes her more of an each-way selection given the level of improvement required to win.

Haydock stage an excellent supporting card to Sandown and another tracked horse, TIME LOCK is certainly worth an interest in the Lancashire Oaks (14:40, Haydock). It was a very disappointing effort last time, but the ground was very quick that day and she never appeared comfortable on it. She had previously travelled like a really useful horse at Goodwood before getting run out of things late. I have mentioned before how recency bias can result in the market overreacting to a horse’s last run, good or bad, rather than their overall profile and, hopefully granted a bit of ease in the ground, this will be the case here.

At Beverley, LADY PINK ROSE looks to have been found the ideal opportunity to get off the mark at the third time of asking (14:50, Beverley). She is held in high regard by the stable and was far from disgraced when second home on her side in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. This should be a confidence booster on the way back to Group company.

STABLE TRACKER UPDATE

Whether to retain Gavi Di Gavi, Bridestones, Lady Pink Rose and Time Lock will be determined by their performances over the weekend, but there is an addition this week in the shape of Miss Sligo.

She battled on really well off a strong gallop on Wednesday to just lose out at Bath to a progressive rival. She’s off a basement mark but has won races during her career and is worth adding to the squad.

JOCKEYS FOR COURSES

We had our first major collect last week with Dane O’Neill’s 75-1 Doncaster treble, his first for three years, at a venue that must be a favourite for him.

Here is Saturday’s list of riders heading off to tracks where they have fared particularly well in the past, hopefully with an extra spring in their step:

  • Carlisle – Ben Curtis (A/E 1.47, large sample)
  • Haydock – Richard Kingscote (A/E 1.17, 129 course winners)
  • Leicester – Jack Mitchell (A/E 1.52)
  • Sandown – Tom Marquand (A/E 1.31)

FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD

JOHN KIRKUP has dropped a long way in the weights but the stable ended a significant losing sequence of over 50 last week and appear to be running into a bit of form. May still have life in the old legs off a career low mark (18:52, Carlisle).

SATURDAY SELECTIONS:

TIME LOCK (14:40, Haydock)

LADY PINK ROSE (14:50, Beverley)

BRIDESTONES (15:00, Sandown)

PADDINGTON (15:40, Sandown)

JOHN KIRKUP (18:52, Carlisle)