Richard Hoiles: My 4 horses to keep an eye out for on Saturday
16 Jun
Horse Racing
Richard Hoiles
The racing broadcaster discusses his four selections at York, Sandown and Bath, jockeys to watch and the valuable lesson that improved his betting.

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With Royal Ascot just around the corner there is a lower-key feel to proceedings this weekend.

SATURDAY SELECTIONS

The feature at York is the Listed ‘Race to the Ebor Grand Cup’ (15:05) which gives the winner a guaranteed berth in the Ebor in August. ISRAR 6/4 had options at Ascot so it is interesting that connections seem keen to explore his stamina here. His form lines look solid and, though Quickthorn will try to run the finish out of him, he has a touch of class and should be up to the task.

In the opening Female Amateur Jockeys race (14:00) I had been keeping an eye on last year’s winner, Zealandia, who I thought was being prepared for a repeat bid. So it is significant that his trainer Ian Williams instead relies on DREAM HARDER 6/1, who looked a little unlucky last time at Chester and is partnered by Alice Stevens, who rode Zealandia to win last year.

The booking of William Buick for Charlie Hill’s BODORGAN 100/30 (14:15, Sandown) is a big plus. William has a career record of 46 winners from 242 runners for the yard (with an actual/expected ratio of 1.35) and is 6/12 this season, suggesting he is a key ‘go-to’ jockey for the yard.

Away from the ITV cameras, BLUE HERO 6/4 (16:45, Bath) can benefit from the likely strong pace and add further to trainer Adrian Wintle’s excellent record at the track (21/95 with an A/E ratio of 1.94).

JOCKEYS FOR COURSES

Here’s our usual list of jockeys who have a very good record at the tracks where they’re riding on Saturday:

These are all from decent sample sizes and, however they fare this weekend, are worth keeping a note of for whenever they ride at the track. There’s nothing better than heading off to a meeting where you have a good career record than somewhere you don’t!

FORGIVE OR FORGET?

When betting on a regular basis, it is so easy just to move on to the next day without revisiting previous bets. One of the biggest steps forward for me personally was taking responsibility for all your bets, good and bad, rather just taking credit for the winners and conveniently ignoring all the losers, when in fact forgiving a loser can be a better source of future profits.

The main reason for that is what is often termed as ‘recency bias’ where a horse’s last run is overvalued in relation to its overall profile.

Using football as an example, I am sure (unless, like me you are a Crewe fan!) you have probably walked out of the stadium after a 3-0 victory convinced that promotion is a formality. More common for an Alex fan is a frustrating defeat a week later that leaves you contemplating a battle for survival when, in fact, over time, mid-table mediocrity is a more likely outcome.

Let’s use two selections of contrasting fortunes from last week’s column as an example. Klimova’s victory on her first start for Kevin Philippart De Foy reinforced the view of always paying close attention to switchers to that yard (especially if there is a past connection with James Fanshawe). Going forward with Klimova, however, that angle has now gone and, with a victory against her name, she is likely to go off short next time.

By contrast, Time Lock put up a woeful effort, never looking comfortable. Having walked Haydock that morning, it was the fastest ground I had seen at a major track all season and she gave the impression she just didn’t handle it. It contrasted so markedly with how she had travelled at Goodwood that I would be very happy to back her again on an easier surface, especially as her odds and the level she is targeted at will likely both be more appealing.

It may seem counter intuitive that it is the loser rather than the winner that may be worth following next time, but the lesson that certain failures – for a run, wrong ground, being against a tempo, or on the wide or wrong side of track where there is a draw bias – can be forgiven is a valuable one that is definitely worth learning.

After Royal Ascot, I will be building a stable of horses based on my racecourse travels that will be flagged up whenever they run via the Betway Twitter account. Which ones to forgive and retain and which ones to forget and let go will be key to it being a success. Watch this space.