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ATLANTA FALCONS (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 19/20
The Falcons have surprised everyone so far this year, going 3-3 and winning three of their last four games. They’re also 6-0 against the spread, and caused a huge upset last week by beating the San Francisco 49ers 28-14 at home.
Atlanta’s defence has played really well over the past four games, but they’ve been helped by an offense that has controlled the ball and kept the opposing offense off the field. Their patient running game has taken the pressure off quarterback Marcus Mariota and made them very difficult to beat.
The Bengals won 30-26 against the New Orleans Saints last week and have now won three of their last four games, but they haven’t been particularly convincing this season and are 1-2 against the spread when favoured by at least 6.5 points.
Atlanta will look to keep the score low in this one and should be capable of sticking with Cincinnati and covering the spread once again.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-2.5) vs Indianapolis Colts 10/11
This could prove to be a crucial game in the AFC South, with the Titans currently leading the division with a 3-2 record, just ahead of the 3-2-1 Colts.
Tennessee are coming off a bye week and have won their last three games, covering the spread on all three occasions. One of those wins actually came against the Colts, meaning the Titans could lock up a potentially vital tiebreaker with another victory on Sunday.
The Titans have had the clear edge in this rivalry over the past few years, having won their last four meetings with the Colts. Indianapolis have won two games in a row to get back above .500 after a slow start, but they’ve been very inconsistent on both sides of the ball all season.
Tennessee will move the ball on the ground through Derrick Henry, control the clock and force the Colts to play catch-up through quarterback Matt Ryan, who has struggled this season.
NEW YORK JETS (-0.5) @ Denver Broncos 19/20
Few would have predicted before the season started that the Jets would come into this game as favourites. They’re 4-2 on the season after winning three straight games, including a stunning 27-10 upset against the Green Bay Packers last week.
The Broncos, meanwhile, have been hugely disappointing after trading for Russell Wilson in the offseason. They’re 2-4 and their average of 15.2 points per game is the lowest of any team in the NFL.
Denver have been good defensively, but Wilson and the offense look totally out of sync and should struggle to get anything going against a Jets defence that has allowed just 15.7 points per game across the last three weeks.
In another low-scoring battle, expect the Jets to get the job done on the road.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 20/23
The Chiefs lost a thrilling game against the Buffalo Bills 20-24 last week in which both teams showed why they’re considered the best two in the AFC this season.
Kansas City’s offense is arguably the best in the entire NFL, but their defence really stepped up against the Bills and emerged with a lot of credit despite the defeat.
Expect the Chiefs to bounce back against the 49ers, who are coming off a shocking loss to the Falcons. San Francisco went into the game as 3.5-point favourites on the road but never looked like winning and were comfortably beaten.
The 49ers have since traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers, but he’s unlikely to be heavily involved just a few days after arriving in San Francisco. In a quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo, there’s only one side to back here.