Houston Texans -7.5

Six of the seven Thursday night games so far this season have been won by the home team, and five of those covered the spread.

Houston look primed to continue that trend, having won their last four games and held each of their last three opponents to under 17 points.

Miami have lost three of their last four after starting the season 3-0, and they’ve been beaten 38-7 and 27-17 in their last two away games.

DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown

Hopkins caught a 10-yard touchdown pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, the third time in four games that he has found the end zone.

The two-time Pro Bowler hasn’t been quite as productive as last season, when he caught a league-leading 13 touchdowns, but he is currently third in receiving yards and is by far the likeliest scorer in this game.

With rookie receiver Keke Coutee likely to miss the game through injury, Hopkins should draw even more targets from Texans QB Deshaun Watson, so there’s a great chance he’ll enjoy a monster game.

Lamar Miller over 54.5 rushing yards

The Dolphins have struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the league.

They could be in for a long night against Miller, who enjoyed his best game of the season last week, rushing for 100 yards and scoring a touchdown against the Jaguars.

The 27-year-old is averaging 61.8 yards per game on the ground this year, and Thursday night is a great chance for him to surpass that total.

Kenyan Drake under 52.5 rushing yards

The Texans are allowing just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt this season, the second-fewest of any team in the NFL.

That’s bad news for Drake, who has only received more than six carries in one of the last five games and is yet to rush for over 53 yards in an away game this season.

The 24-year-old gained a season-high 72 yards on the ground last week, but 54 of those came on a single carry, and he should struggle to break loose against a stingy Houston defence.

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