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Tampa Bay Lightning to win 2.35

The right team won Game 1. The Colorado Avalanche deserved the win with the way they came out of the gates and put Tampa Bay on their heels right away. The Lightning battled back, because that’s what they do, but Colorado found a way and now have a 1-0 series lead. Beating the Lightning is obviously not unprecedented in this postseason, but beating them twice in a row is quite difficult.

The Rangers did it in the last round, but then Tampa won the next four. The fact the Lightning managed to get back in Game 1 and nearly snatch a key win on the road away from the Avs shows they have enough to get the job done. The reason I’ve got Tampa in this one, however, is that Andrei Vasilevskiy got off to a bad start, but settled into the game and was very good. He’s now won just one of the four Game 1s his team has played in this postseason, but in all other games is 11-3 with a .939 save percentage.

He will have his work cut out for him, though. According to naturalstattrick.com, Vasilevskiy faced 27 scoring chances against at five-on-five as the Avalanche carried play to the tune of a 56.25 per cent shot attempts for percentage. Tampa needs to be better in front of him for longer stretches of the game for the Bolts to have a chance.

Colorado is legit and showed that their depth up front can be a difference. They didn’t have a ton of goals from their stars, but the guys down the lineup or the less-heralded players made the biggest difference. On top of that, Darcy Kuemper was good enough to help them win. Colorado has been good on taking control of games and series and have a good chance, but I have such a hard time going against Vasilevskiy coming off of a loss.

Before losing Game 2 against the Rangers in the Western Conference finals, Vasilevskiy had won his 17 previous starts after a loss in the three previous postseasons. As much as I respect the Avalanche for the way they played and how good they were in Game 1, it’s so hard to go against Vasilevskiy after a loss. This Tampa team has been in this position plenty and had no panic after Game 1. I expect a much better effort now that they know what to expect.

Under 6 total goals 1.90

OK, so I got burned on this in Game 1, but the Avalanche surprised me with their hot start. I think the Lightning are going to make the necessary adjustments and won’t get caught flat-footed again. Additionally, we have to expect Vasilveskiy to be sharper. He’s the best goalie in the world and you almost have to expect a huge bounce-back from him at this point given his track record.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche still owned the puck in Game 1. If Vasilevskiy is on and the Avs win the puck possession battle, we could be in for a real low-scoring affair. Tampa is going to make it harder for Colorado to establish their speed and transition game and I think that could be the difference in the game and the score line.

Brayden Point anytime goalscorer 2.75

In his first game in over a month, Brayden Point looked sharp. He had an assist and looked a lot more dangerous than I expected him to. The depth players are so key so far in this series, but Point still looked like a star in his first game back from injury. Assuming he plays that well again, I like the value on him to light the lamp.

The biggest concern I had was if Point would have the pace to keep up with the Avs given he had missed so much time. But he could dictate the pace a bit more on his shifts. I think that first game was more him testing his limits and this game will be more of his regular style game.

He has five points in eight playoff games including an assist in Game 1. Let’s not forget, though, that he scored 14 goals in each of the last two Tampa runs to the Stanley Cup. When he’s on, he’s a threat to score.

Darcy Kuemper over 27.5 saves 1.90

Part of why I picked the Lightning to win Game 2 is I think they’re going to generate more shots. Darcy Kuemper is going to have his work cut out for him. He has answered a lot of the questions about him over the course of this season, but he is going to need to have a big Game 2 for the Avalanche to stay in this.

He had just 23 in Game 1 and I think it’s fair to expect the Lightning to really pour it on here. While I think Kuemper is worthy of being a top quality starter, he still has to find a way to put this team on his back if they need him to. While I don’t think Game 2 is the night for that, I think Kuemper is going to have to make a lot of saves in order to give his team a chance, and I’m sure he will.