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C’mon now, Alex DeBrincat! We’ve picked you three times already this season, and you’re so snake-bitten that you haven’t rewarded us once. The point production is there, the shots are there, but the puck isn’t going into the net for him.
It’s always tough to figure out when a player who is doing all the right things but can’t get the puck to go where they want is going to break out, because he will break out at some point. For shooters, I like to look at shots per game - is the player getting looks? Overall, yes, but DeBrincat’s shot production has been a little inconsistent. For now, we’ll have to look at some other unlucky scorers.
Calgary Flames (+1.5) vs Boston Bruins 1.55
The Flames are in shambles right now. After starting the season incredibly well with a 5-1 record, they’ve lost six straight games. The most painful part, however, is that they’ve held leads in most of those games, and five of the six games in that streak have been won by just a single goal by their opponents.
The Bruins are an absolute powerhouse, so it’s tempting to write Calgary off entirely and say Boston wins this one in a walk, but the New Jersey Devils have been even better than the Bruins, and they’ve managed two one-goal wins over the Flames in the last week or so. I think we can count on the Flames to fight hard, even if they lose.
Ottawa Senators to beat New Jersey Devils 2.50
All good things, and bad things, must come to an end. The New Jersey Devils have won seven straight games, they’re 10-1 since starting the season with two losses, and they’re the NHL’s top team in a variety of metrics at 5-vs-5.
The Senators, meanwhile, have lost six straight in regulation, but are a top-five team in expected goals for percentage at 5-vs-5, and in the top 10 when you adjust for score and venue.
While the Senators are more than due, the Devils show no signs of slacking off. This isn’t so much guarantee as it is a bet that will have a large payout, and is one of those hockey things that just seem to happen. Even the best teams don’t win forever, while the worst ones don’t lose forever. And the Senators are far from the worst team.
Mat Barzal (New York Islanders) to score anytime vs Arizona Coyotes 3.00
The Islanders seem to have shaken off the awfulness of last season, which may have had more to do with that legendary road trip to start the season than anything, but you probably haven’t heard Mat Barzal’s name too much this year. Would it shock you to learn that he’s already at 15 points on the season, over a point per game?
That’s even crazier when you realize he’s yet to score a goal this season, and that’s despite recording shots at the highest rate of his career so far. Against a team that likes to trade chances off the rush like the Coyotes do, this is a perfect time for Barzal to light the lamp for the first time this season.
Boone Jenner (Columbus Blue Jackets) to score anytime vs Philadelphia Flyers 2.87
Another player who is overdue to start putting the puck in the net, Jenner is having a tough start like much of his team. The Blue Jackets have come out of the gate looking even worse than expected, but he’s over 5.5 expected goals at this point in the season based on the shots he’s taken, and has scored just two.
The Flyers are still riding high under the tutelage of John Tortorella, but they’re an extreme house of cards that could collapse at any moment, and even a bad team like the Blue Jackets could easily cause that.