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There are huge implications for the last Wild Card spots in both conferences heading into Thursday evening’s games, but the biggest potential swing might be in the East. The Florida Panthers are on the second half of a back-to-back, but have what should be an easy matchup on paper, while the Penguins are facing an equally desperate team. A four-point swing at this stage might be enough to dramatically change the 2023 playoff picture.
Over 7.5 goals in Montreal Canadiens vs Florida Panthers 2.50
When these two teams meet, a lot of goals are scored. Both have relatively shoddy goaltending and are riding high team shooting percentages in recent weeks, so the chance of a tight, low-scoring game seems pretty low.
Add on top of that the Panthers are on the second half of a back-to-back, and the better team in the matchup should be more exploitable than usual.
Matthew Tkachuk 2.05 (Florida Panthers) to score 2+ points vs Montreal Canadiens
The Panthers have taken the Canadiens to the woodshed this season overall, but Matthew Tkachuk and Alex Barkov in particular have eaten them alive. In the three previous games against the Canadiens, that duo has run up the score with a whopping nine points each.
Tkachuk is having a season that should put him in the conversation for the Hart Trophy, and everyone knows how great Barkov is, but they’re both especially feasting on the Canadiens’ lack of defensive structure this season.
New York Rangers to beat New Jersey Devils 2.10
In a playoff series that appears to be looming in the first round this postseason, I would take the New Jersey Devils to win, but right now the Rangers are scorching hot, and the Devils have been sort of floating along waiting for the season to end.
The Rangers appear to be working overtime to get their new trade deadline acquisitions fully gelled within the team, and that so-so season from Igor Shesterkin seems to be disappearing as he’s rounding into playoff form, with a league-leading .947 save percentage in his last seven games, going 6-1-0 over that time, while backup Jaroslav Halak has been nearly as good with a .934 in three games of his own.
Nashville Predators to beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2.60
Fresh off of beating the incredible Boston Bruins, in Boston as well, the Predators are slowly building momentum towards stealing that final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They have two games in hand on Calgary and Winnipeg heading into this one, and if they win both they’ll be the team to beat down the stretch.
The Penguins, meanwhile, are playing good hockey on paper. They're controlling expected goals at the third-highest rate in the entire NHL at 5-vs-5 and in all situations over their last 10 games, but they’ve only taken home eight of a possible 20 points over that time. As easy as it would be to blame just goaltending, the Penguins have allowed five more goals than expected against over this stretch, but scored 11 fewer than expected. They’re getting poor results at both ends.