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Sometimes all you need to bust out of a big-time slump is to get lucky once. There’s a couple of players playing tonight who we know, based on their historical performances, are good players, though maybe not huge scoring threats in an average game. Either way, the work they’ve put in this season is enough to make them overdue for a little hot streak.
Alex Kerfoot (Toronto Maple Leafs) to score anytime vs Los Angeles Kings 4.00
With the Maple Leafs leading 3-0 late in the third period, Kerfoot chased down a clearing attempt in the neutral zone and softly tapped the puck deeper and towards the Dallas Stars’ empty net. As the puck slid past the goal line, Kerfoot had snapped a 21-game goalless drought.
Kerfoot is by no means a prodigious goal scorer, averaging 12 per 82 games during his tenure with the Leafs heading into this season. Though he’s faced a lot of criticism, the shots he’s taken this year give him an expected goal total near seven, not the paltry two he has thus far. One thing going right for him could be what gets him going.
Florida Panthers to beat Detroit Red Wings 1.53
The Panthers have struggled with consistency this season, currently on the outside looking in at a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, and winners of just three games in their last 10. That’s despite the Panthers ranking fourth in the league in expected goals for percentage at 5-vs-5 at an excellent 56.6 per cent, and fifth in all situations at 55.2 per cent.
Playing a team like the Detroit Red Wings, who are excellent on special teams but mediocre at even strength, while also being ahead of the Panthers in the Atlantic division, is a game the Cats can’t afford to lose.
Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa Senators) to score anytime vs Dallas Stars 2.62
If you’ve been watching the Senators this season, you’ll probably agree that their record should be better than it is. They’ve been extremely hot and cold so far, but team captain Brady Tkachuk has been an absolute beast.
Twelve goals in 25 games has him on pace for a career high of 39, but the crazy thing is he’s actually been extremely unlucky over the last month. Tkachuk usually underscores his expected goals because he shoots from close to the net and his hands aren’t elite, but he has an expected 11.74 goals over the last month and has lit the lamp just 6 times. Even a player who routinely scores less than expected should be able to hit more than half that mark.
Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars) to score anytime vs Ottawa Senators 3.00
Another player having an extremely rough time, Tyler Seguin has scored just four goals this year, with an expected 8.23. His last month has been even worse than that, with just one goal on an expected 4.29.
Throughout his career, Seguin has been a remarkably consistent goalscorer in terms of getting what he earns. Over the last 10 seasons, he’s scored 253 goals on 252.87 expected goals. That’s insanely bang on, and he’s never had a single season where he’s been wildly off his expected rate, even while struggling with injuries. Things should turn for him.