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Oilers to beat Avalanche 2.10

The Colorado Avalanche have simply been better than the Oilers through the first two games, but as the series shifts to Edmonton, it’s a chance for a fresh start for the series. The Oilers are home underdogs in this game and with good reason as they trail 2-0 in the series after a 4-0 loss in Game 2, shutout by Colorado backup goalie Pavel Francouz. An uphill battle awaits in Game 3.

Edmonton has not lost more than two games in a row in this postseason. Mike Smith played adequately in Game 2 and over the course of these playoffs has had more good games than bad, but the Oilers have also played just six games on home ice these playoffs and are 4-2. Now they have to take on the team that has outright dominated them in possession, burned them in transition and made things generally miserable for Connor McDavid in a way no other teams had in these playoffs.

The series is not out of reach, but it will sure feel like it if Colorado manages to pick up a win. The good news for Edmonton is that there really was only a three-minute stretch in Game 2 where they let the game get away from them. Other than that, they at least kept it close.

Game 3 is probably the game Edmonton is most likely to win if they’re going to win one. They can get Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl some more favorable matchups with the last change as the home team and they’ll have the benefit of the raucous home crowd, providing Colorado one of the wildest environments they’ve played in yet this postseason.

Every piece of my brain is saying that the Avs will continue to roll, but I’ve also seen Edmonton surprise us enough times in this postseason to know it’s far from a lock. If the Oilers are going to win a game in this series, I think this is the one. So, with great trepidation, I’m going with the Oilers on home ice.

Under 7 total goals 1.80

The over was looking like it would be a safe play in every game of this series, but then Francouz pitched a shutout in Game 2 and the Avs didn’t steamroll the Oilers quite like they could have. In six previous games played at Rogers Arena in Edmonton this postseason, four games were at seven goals or under.

I think it will be a little harder for the Avs to run away with the game on the road and the Oilers can’t let this become a shootout. As fast as Edmonton is, Colorado is faster. If the game gets too loose, it’s going to favor the Avalanche.

If I’m picking the Oilers to win it, they’re going to have to keep things a bit more contained to have a chance and that’s why I see this being a more low-scoring affair.

Connor McDavid anytime goal scorer 2.00

For only the second time this postseason, McDavid was held off the scoresheet in Game 2. Last time that happened, McDavid responded with a one-goal, two-assist performance. This is going to have to be one of those games where he puts the team on his back if they’re going to have a chance.

McDavid has scored three of his eight postseason goals at home. I’d expect him to play upwards of 25 minutes in this game and playing with especially high intensity. This is as close to a must-win game as it gets, because you don’t want to give Colorado up to four cracks at ending your season after this.

Cale Makar under 2.5 shots 2.25

Through two games in this series, Makar has had four total shots. In this road game, his primary focus is going to be trying to slow down Connor McDavid. Makar is great at multi-tasking and he’s still managed to put up four points in this series while also playing strong defense, but he’s not getting as many chances to get shots off. Though he was the top goal-scoring defenseman in the NHL this year, I think he’ll continue to be held to a lower shot total.

He has been held to under 2.5 shots on goal in half of the 12 playoff games he’s appeared in this year. With the importance of defending Edmonton’s best players, I think he’ll continue to keep the shot totals low in this one.