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Avalanche to beat Oilers 

Well, it was a good run, Edmonton. I thought the Oilers had a chance before Game 3 when Connor McDavid scored 30 seconds into the game. Then Evander Kane immediately took a five-minute major to sap any momentum from that perfect start and now he’ll be suspended for Game 4 as well.

The Avs did not score on the power play from that Kane major penalty, but they did manage to score the next two goals and the last two goals to take a commanding 3-0 series lead and all but dash the Oilers’ hopes of playing in the Stanley Cup Final. Even with the superhuman McDavid, there’s only so much he can do. And with Kane, the leading goal scorer of these playoffs, out for Game 4, that’s a massive weapon no longer at Edmonton’s disposal.

Similarly, the Avalanche will have to continue without Nazem Kadri, who has been an integral piece of the middle of Colorado’s lineup. He is injured and likely out for at least the rest of this series, if not longer. That’s going to be a massive headache as soon as Colorado advances to the Cup Final because they’re going to be playing much deeper teams when they get there, whether its New York or Tampa Bay.

Either way, I just don’t see a path back in this series for Edmonton and I think the Oilers know it, too. They can talk about wanting to win just one game and take it one game at a time, but they’ve got too tall a hill to climb. I don’t expect them to roll over, but I also don’t expect the Avalanche to give them any hope. Colorado has won each of the first three games by two or more goals and have been by far the better team for the vast majority of the games to date.

Over 6.5 total goals 

The Avalanche have played in three elimination games this postseason and hit the over in two of those three. The most recent was a 3-2 win over St. Louis in Game 6 of the last round, which was a tight contest. I don’t think the Oilers can play them that tight and I don’t think Mike Smith has his A-game anymore. He’s given up some real clunkers in the last few games.

We’ve only got one game so far in this series that hit the over, and now both teams are down significant forwards in Kane and Kadri. I think the Avs have the depth to handle their loss way better than the Oilers do.

On top of that, Edmonton’s blue line has looked cooked in a few of these games where they’re giving up far too many Grade A chances. With the chance to close out the series, I think the Avs are going to hit the gas to make sure they get enough rest ahead of the Cup Final.

Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal scorer 

MacKinnon has 10 goals in the playoffs so far and four of those came in games where the Avalanche had a chance to close out the series. He had one against Nashville in Game 4 of the first round and a hat trick in Game 5 against the Blues, which Colorado ultimately lost. Either way, MacKinnon has been very difficult to stop as series have progressed and this should be no different.

He scored in each of the first two games of this series, but couldn’t hit the back of the net in Game 3. That said, MacKinnon has accounted for a stunning 20 shots on goal through three games of this series, including 11 in Game 2.

Though he has done most of his scoring on home ice this year with just two of his 10 goals coming away from Denver, MacKinnon seems to bring his game up a notch when there’s blood in the water. Look for him to key Colorado’s success in Game 4.

Mikko Rantanen to score 2+ points 

Rantanen was pretty quiet earlier in the playoffs, but he’s been anything but quiet in this series. He has five points including three goals after scoring just one goal prior to the Western Conference Final.

Rantanen, though, will lose his center in this game, and may have to play the middle himself as Nazem Kadri sits out injured. That said, I think Rantanen has played some of his best hockey of the postseason in this series and is on a bit of a heater.

I like the value on him to have a multi-point game and would not be shocked if he had yet another goal just as he did in each of the first three games of this series.