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Tampa Bay Lightning to win 

This series seemed to flip the second the Lightning tied up Game 3, coming back from a 2-0 deficit and ultimately winning that game. Now the champs look like the champs again and it’s probably their defending and puck possession that is more impressive than anything at this point.

The Lightning have suddenly flipped the complexion of the series. Even though it’s tied and Game 5 will be played in Madison Square Garden, where the Rangers have been tougher, the Bolts are still favored to win. Part of that is due to what the Lightning have managed to do to get the series back even, but it also has a lot to do with the injuries the Rangers are currently facing. Ryan Strome couldn’t play in Game 4 and Filip Chytil left that game early. If either are out again, the Rangers’ depth is significantly diminished as that’s two centers out of the lineup.

With Tampa firing on all cylinders coming out of the last game, the Rangers can’t afford to be that shorthanded. They need all hands on deck, but it might be tougher to get those guys back in the mix. It puts pressure on Igor Shesterkin to have another all-world performance in order to give his team the chance.

The Lightning seemed to have seize control of the series and we’ve seen this movie before. You give this team an opening, they’re going to take it. At five-on-five they’ve been the far superior team. They also were disciplined enough to stay out of the penalty box in the last game to maintain their even-strength advantage. I don’t know if game-to-game momentum exists in the playoffs, but if it does, this looks like a good spot to lean on it.

Under 5.5 total goals 

I was so tempted by the over last time, but the game was so tightly played, I think that may be what the rest of the series looks like. We’ve now seen three relatively low-scoring games after that Rangers goal explosion in Game 1.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been so dialed in over the last few games and Igor Shesterkin has at least made it tougher on the Lightning to get the goals congruent with the rate their offense is generating chances.

We thought coming into the series that the under was going to be the play to hammer in every game and that’s proven true in the last three. I think that is one trend that will continue into Game 5.

Ondrej Palat anytime goal scorer 

Palat has been one of the best players in this series and has three goals over the first four games to show for it. Game 4 may have been his best game to date with points on three of the four goals the Lightning scored.

Palat is so sneaky that sometimes you forget about him and then all of the sudden he comes up with a big play. He had produced adequately at the beginning of the playoffs, but has really come alive in this series.

The depth of these teams is going to matter most in this game. The stars tend to cancel each other out a bit more, and Palat is one of the very best “depth” players so far over the course of the series. I’ll stick with the hot hand.

Nikita Kucherov to score 2+ points 

I’m still big on Kucherov. He’s played so well in the last two games in particular and has been rewarded with goals in each of his last three games. He also had nine shots after the last two games and accounted for seven in Game 1 alone. Whether he’s at home or on the road, he finds a way to produce. He has multi-point games in seven of his 15 postseason appearances this year.

I just feel like if Tampa has really flipped this series as I think they have, Kucherov is going to be right in the middle of it. He’s one of only four players in the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with three consecutive postseasons with 20 or more points. This three-peat train is not going to stop and I think Kucherov will be the conductor of it.