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Tampa Bay Lightning to win 1.54

The Lightning looked like they might see their run to three consecutive titles on the brink when the New York Rangers took a 2-0 lead in Game 3. Those who counted out Tampa Bay, however, were quickly reminded that few teams manufacture offense as well as they can, scoring three unanswered including a late game-winner by Ondrej Palat that got them right back into the series.

The Lighting have lost just once on home ice this postseason – a 5-2 defeat at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round. Perhaps the Lightning could have gone a little harder in the regular season to try to secure home ice instead of always starting the series as a road team, but that’s in the past. What’s in front of them is an opportunity to even the series.

But let’s talk about the away side. The Rangers have looked remarkable in this series, out-skating the Lightning. They’ve gotten tremendous goaltending from Igor Shesterkin and have put more pressure on the Lightning. It’s been an incredible run to this point for a team that few expected to be at this stage of the season.

However, a closer look at Game 3 shows how much the Lightning dominated possession at 5-on-5. The Bolts accounted for a whopping 64 per cent of shot attempts, 65 per cent of the shots on goal, 63 per cent of the scoring chances and 74 per cent of the high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. It was a dominant showing muted by the brilliance of Igor Shesterkin who was sensational in net.

On home ice, the Lightning are near unbeatable. If they dominate possession as they did in Game 3, there’s a good chance it’s going to be a longer night for the Rangers. The Lightning have to find a way to get this series back even before going back to New York where the Rangers have played better.

The champs are still the champs and they showed why in Game 3. Expect them to remind us of that again in Game 4.

Over 5.5 total goals 2.15

We have two of the elite goaltenders in the game today in Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy. They’ve not allowed goals to come easy in the last two games, each of which ended with five goals. That said, I think the Lightning found their game a bit more in Game 3, which leads me to believe they could open the flood gates a little.

In games played in Amalie Arena this postseason, the average goals per game has been 6.1. The last two games played there were the only two not to exceed six goals. Seeing the value on the over in this one, I like my chances with how the Lightning have typically played on home ice.

This game should be an absolute battle that is going to test both goaltenders in ways I don’t think they have been yet. We’ve reached the stage of the postseason where fatigue and injuries can really come into play. After watching the goal fest in Edmonton last night, I think we get more fireworks – though maybe not as many – in this one, too.

Nikita Kucherov to score 2+ points 2.30

I thought Kucherov was one of, if not the best player on the ice in Game 3. He scored a goal and had two assists in 20:26 of ice time. His deft pass to Palat on the game-winner was one of the best plays of the game and one that seemed like only he could make. He is one of the most dangerous shot-pass threats in the game today as he can beat you so many different ways.

With multi-point games in each of his last two contests and seven in 14 games this postseason, I think he’ll continue to shine in this series for the Lightning. With Brayden Point out, there’s more pressure on everyone in Tampa to step up and Kucherov has really done it in the last game in particular. I think it continues on as that felt like a potential breakout game of this series for Kucherov.

Steven Stamkos over 3.5 shots on goal 2.15

The Lightning captain has absolutely brought it these playoffs and has looked really good in this series even with his team trailing 2-1. He has registered 15 shots on goal through three games, including six each in Game 1 and 2.

He’s only had four or more shots in five of his 14 playoff games this season, but I’m going to stick with the trend he’s shown in this particular series.

Stamkos has four points to date, including two goals, making the most of the ice time he’s getting. With his team desperate to get this series back to even, I fully expect him to step up and have another one of those signature big-time performances he’s pulled out in several games this postseason including most recently in Game 3.