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Panthers to beat Capitals 1.50
Florida found its game in Game 2, which proved too much for the Capitals that were without key forward Tom Wilson, who brings enough of an element that his absence was noticeable. The 5-1 win in Game 2 allowed the Panthers to shake off the disappointing loss in Game 1 where they coughed up the lead and let the game get away from them.
Florida owned the puck in Game 2, controlling 58 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, including a dominant third period where they had 72 per cent of the shot attempts and 78 per cent of the scoring chances in the final frame. It was as if the Panthers had broken the will of the veteran Capitals in that third period.
This series will be a battle, though. And Game 3 shifts back to Washington, where the Caps were oddly in the bottom third of teams this season. Their home ice record was 19-16-6 compared to their league-best 25-10-6 road record. The Panthers were also one of the league’s best road teams this season with a 24-11-6 record away from home.
Wilson’s status remains unknown and while his absence should not make or break the Caps’ chances, it is pretty big. The other thing is that Sergei Bobrovsky had a tremendous bounce-back performance in net for Florida in Game 2, stopping 26 of 27 shots. Meanwhile, the Caps had to make a goalie switch in Game 2 and may turn to Sergei Samsonov in Game 3. With the Panthers and Bobrovsky back on track after an impressive Game 2, I like their chances of seizing control of the series here.
Avalanche to beat Predators 1.40
The Preds came shockingly close to tying the series with the Avs, losing Game 2 2-1 in overtime. No one has given Nashville a chance in this series against arguably the league’s most talented top-to-bottom team. That game proved they at least have a case to stick with the Avs.
The biggest reason? Rookie goalie Connor Ingram made 49 saves and gave his team a little confidence that they had a guy that could give them a chance. That wasn’t really known as Game 2 was just his fourth ever start in the NHL. Now he has to answer the question: Can he do that again?
Without Ingram, the Preds would have been steamrolled again. Colorado controlled 62 per cent of the shots attempted in the game at five-on-five and it got even worse at all strengths. The Avalanche had 34 scoring chances in the game, as opposed to allowing just 18, at all strengths. That’s not a recipe for success.
My fear for the Predators is that Game 2 is as close as they’re going to get and by not winning that one, they might not get another chance. The Avalanche are fully awake now, have another day to prepare for Ingram and that’s probably not great news for Nashville. The Avalanche just have too much depth, too much speed and without another virtuoso performance from Ingram, this could get ugly.
Rangers to beat Penguins 1.87
What a fascinating series this has been so far. The Penguins pull out the dramatic triple-OT winner in Game 1, then the Rangers picked up a decisive 5-2 win in Game 2. The big question going into that one was about Penguins goaltending as third-stringer Louis Domingue was going to have to start. Now we know that second-stringer Casey DeSmith is done for the playoffs with a core muscle injury. So unless starter Tristan Jarry becomes available soon for this series, the net is Domingue’s.
While Domingue is a veteran backup, asking him to win you a series against a talented Rangers team that boasts the best goaltender in the NHL this season in Igor Shesterkin is a bit much. The Penguins as a whole, though, remain a legit challenger. Shesterkin still stopped 39 of 41 in Game 2 and looked awfully comfortable doing so.
Shesterkin looks like he could be the difference in this series, especially if the Penguins have to rely on a guy who hasn’t played a ton this year. I’ll keep riding with Shesterkin until he gives us a reason not to, which is why I’ll stick with the Rangers on the road in Game 3.
Flames to beat Stars 1.57
The Stars beat the Flames at their own game in Game 2. Both teams have earned a shutout in this series, with the Flames getting the 1-0 win in Game 1 and the Stars taking a 2-0 decision in Game 2.
While the score was not encouraging for the Flames, the underlying numbers were. They owned the puck and five-on-five with a stunning 65 per cent of the shots attempted. At all strengths, they accounted for 30 scoring chances while allowing just 19. With numbers like that, there’s an expectation you have a good chance to win the game.
Jake Oettinger had other ideas. The young Dallas goalie stopped all 29 shots he faced in Game 2 and has now made 54 saves on 55 shots against in this series. The question is, how long can he keep this up. Over his first two NHL seasons, Oettinger owns a .913 save percentage. He’s at .982 through two games of this series. I’m not sure how that continues against a team with the offensive weapons that Calgary has.
Calgary was the second best road team in the NHL this season, going 25-12-4 over the season. That the series is shifting to Dallas on a loss won’t rattle this team. They know they carried play in Game 2. Oettinger very well could steal another one, but a team that has to rely on its goalie every single night to steal them a game is not often going to have success.
Expect another low-scoring affair, but Calgary has carried play enough in the first two games to lead me to believe they’ll find a way to respond to that loss.