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Hurricanes to beat Rangers 

The home team remains undefeated in every single playoff game involving Carolina this postseason. The Hurricanes are eventually going to have to win on the road if they want to win the Stanley Cup, but they’ve got home ice advantage in this series and that ultimately could make the difference.

The Rangers have only won one game on the road this postseason, the critical Game 6 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins that kept their series alive. Otherwise, they’ve lost four of five including Games 1 and 2 of this series where their offense stalled in 2-1 and 2-0 losses.

The biggest reason Carolina has had success is they’ve been incredibly stingy on home ice. They have not yet allowed more than two goals in any game as the home side this postseason. Antti Raanta, who had only made five postseason appearances in his NHL career – none of which were starts – has posted a .931 save percentage through 10 games as Carolina’s unexpected playoff starter. The former New York Ranger has stymied his former team, especially on home ice, stopping 48 of 49 shots. But Carolina is also allowing fewer shots against on average at home.

That’s the key to this game. Should the Hurricanes continue to limit shots and give Raanta support, it’s going to be a lot harder for the Rangers offense to break through. On home ice, the Hurricanes are far better at doing that and have five games that show they can do that consistently at home. Until a road team finds a way to win in this series, it’s hard to go against the home side, which is why I think Carolina will pull ahead in this series before it shifts back to New York.

Chris Kreider under 2.5 shots on goal 

I had a Kreider player prop in my last entry that didn’t hit, but this goes in the completely opposite direction. Kreider is such an important part of the Rangers offense that when he’s not getting shots, it’s a lot harder for them to win. Over the first two games against Carolina in this series, he had just one shot on goal. In the two games on home ice, he totaled eight shots on goal with four in each contest.

Kreider has been held below 2.5 shots just four times in 11 contests this postseason. It’s not a play without risk as Kreider has typically been a volume shooter, but seeing how well Carolina was able to contain him on home ice leads me to believe that is a key piece of their gameplan. As a result, I think it’s going to be difficult for Kreider to get the same level of chances he’s been getting when playing back in New York.

Oilers to beat Flames 

Have I learned my lesson too late? Is it time to finally believe? Over the last three games, I have believed the Calgary Flames would find a way. They’re not finding a way. The Edmonton Oilers have outplayed them in this series and even when the Oilers make mistakes, like the goal Mike Smith let up from three zones away, they still win.

As much as Connor McDavid has taken over this series, the Oilers have also been getting secondary scoring. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the hero in Game 4. Evander Kane has been scoring goals at a level not seen in recent memory with 12 through his first 11 games of the playoffs. Plus, McDavid is averaging a stunning 2.27 points per game this postseason. So even though he doesn’t need to do it all himself at this moment, he’s pulling a lion share of the scoring for his team.

It's become impossible to pick against the best player in the world. He’s willing his team in this series. On the flip side, Jacob Markstrom has an unsightly .850 save percentage. This is a Vezina Trophy finalist, one of the best goalies in the league this season and he hasn’t been able to make the stops his team needs to have a chance in this series. He was so good against Dallas, but has made mistakes and isn’t making the stops now.

I believe that the Flames will play well with their backs against the wall and I still have my doubts about the Oilers to maintain this torrid pace they’re on, especially on the road. That said, they’ve scored no less than four goals in any game this series and more times than not, that level of scoring is going to win you playoff games. Now they have a chance to close it out as underdogs tonight, giving this pick a little more value.

Connor McDavid to score 2+ points 

He’s a freak of nature and continues to put up numbers we haven’t seen since Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux were dominating the NHL. His 2.27 points per game is among the best in decades. McDavid has put up two or more points in 10 playoff games, which is why he’s the only player in this game favored to get at least two. You could consider juicing some value by bumping it up to Connor McDavid to score 3+ points, but I think Calgary is going to play with some desperation in this elimination game.

That said, McDavid has been automatic. With only one game where he didn’t have a point and 11 points through the first four games of this series, how do you pick against him? He’s the best player in the world playing at the very top of his game right now. It’s truly remarkable to watch.