NHL playoffs picks: 4 best bets for Tuesday
Andrew Berkshire picks out his four best NHL bets for Tuesday, with two second-round matchups getting underway.
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It actually happened. For the first time in 19 years, the Toronto Maple Leafs won a playoff series. After dusting the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games, the Leafs are in uncharted territory as a team. Are they satisfied with breaking the curse of disappointing first-round failures, or has breaking through their usual barrier given them the confidence to go on a long run?
Florida Panthers to beat Toronto Maple Leafs
After winning three straight to eliminate the Boston Bruins, the Florida Panthers are on an absolute roll right now. I think Toronto will ultimately win this series in five or six games because the Panthers are so chaotic defensively, but in Game 1 the momentum from beating Boston hasn’t quite worn off yet.
Adding to that, the Maple Leafs are only 1-2 on home ice in the playoffs. It’s been on the road where they’ve done their best work, going 3-0 with three straight overtime victories, channelling the 1993 Montreal Canadiens. Unlike years past, I don’t expect a Game 1 loss to rattle the Leafs at all.
Over 7.5 total goals in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers
Two high octane offences meet in the second round, as the Florida Panthers dusted the so-called best regular season team of all time, and came back from a 3-1 series deficit in the process. The Panthers play a chaotic style that produces a lot of goals, while the Leafs are more structured but have the higher end offensive group at the top.
Sergei Bobrovsky and Ilya Samsonov will do their best to limit the goal scoring pile up, but I think this series has the potential for many 6-5 and 5-4 games. In all situations, the Panthers had the highest expected goals against in the first round, something the Leafs will try to pounce on.
Dallas Stars to beat Seattle Kraken & over 5.5 total goals
The Seattle Kraken have gone from not existing two years ago to beating the reigning Stanley Cup Champions in the first round of the playoffs. That’s an incredible narrative, but let’s be real for a moment and remember that this year’s Colorado Avalanche compared to last year were without Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, and for part of the series, Cale Makar. Seattle also lost Jared McCann, but this wasn’t the same Avs.
Seattle’s strength is depth, with 15 different players scoring in the first round, but the Dallas Stars also have depth, with a lot more star quality at the top.
The biggest factor between these two teams is going to be goaltending. Philipp Grubauer had a great first round, but he hasn’t been strong the last two full seasons, and Jake Oettinger is one of the best young goaltenders in the league.
Jason Robertson to score anytime vs Seattle Kraken
You know a player is special when they score seven points in a six-game playoff series and the reaction is that they had a bit of a disappointing series. Robertson is a rare talent in that he’s a high-volume shooter who also scores at a higher-than-average shooting percentage - nearly 16 per cent for his career and nearly 15 per cent in the regular season, which was his first 100-point season and second 40-goal season.
Robertson only shot nine per cent in the first round against the Minnesota Wild, so expect him to improve on that number through the rest of the playoffs, even if Joe Pavelski is out for a while longer. He’s just too dangerous.